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Published 2008-05-15 16:20:00
 


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PDFA’s Propaganda Released On the Internet
Hides Margin Of Error That Makes Headline Meaningless


(Ed. note: The PDFA home page begins with the greeting: "Welcome to the most complete and accurate compilation of information about drugs on the Web."

However, this press release "Boomer-Rang: Baby Boomers Seriously Underestimating Presence of Drugs in Their Children’s Lives,"which is the currently featured link from the page, is both sensationalistic and misleading. At the top of the next page under the picture of a child who looks more like five than nine years old, there is the caption:

"The number of 9-12 year-olds experimenting with marijuana increased from 334,000 in 1993 to 571,000 in 1997." This number is based on an increase from 3 percent to 5 percent of children in that age group. The margin of error for the children’s data was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. This means that marijuana use among this group may actually have dropped! The margin of error for the teens was plus or minus 1.2; for the adults, plus or minus 3.4.percentage points. The survey was conducted last year among 1,922 children, 6,975 teens and 815 parents.

Leaving aside the inherent unreliability of questioning nine year-olds on "anonymous self-completed questionnaires", this number is an extrapolation from a very small sample [1,992] which varied within the unpublished margin of error.

Nowhere in the document is the margin of error published.

Apparently the AP, which ran an otherwise uncritical story, at least asked the PDFA about the margin of error, but then did not think to look at the numbers.
See
Associated Press Reports Uncritically On A Partnership For A Drug-Free America Survey On Kids’ Marijuana Use

It was the PDFA that chose to emphasize this number, perhaps because it sounds the most alarming. No doubt it will be used in Congress to justify the suppression of medical marijuana!)

Boomer-Rang: Baby Boomers Seriously Underestimating Presence of Drugs in Their Children’s Lives

From www.drugfree.org

Drug use remains high among teenagers and children; 47 percent increase in number of 9- to 12-year-olds offered drugs over last five years.

NEW YORK, April 13th – Despite dramatic increases in adolescent drug use since 1991, Baby Boomers are seriously underestimating the reality of drugs in their children’s lives, according to a national study released today by the Partnership for a Drug-Free America (PDFA).

   "Parents, by and large, recognize the severity of the drug problem, but few sincerely believe their children are exposed to drugs, that drugs are widely available in schools their children attend," said Richard D. Bonnette, president & CEO of the Partnership. "Boomers – many of whom have ‘been there, done that’ – are surprisingly and ironically out of step with the reality of drugs in their children’s lives."

Released today via the Internet, the Partnership Attitude Tracking Study (PATS) – the only on-going national research that tracks drug use and drug-related attitudes among children as young as eight and nine -- surveyed 9,712 children, teens and parents across the country. The study documents a dramatic gap between parents’ perceptions about their children and drugs, and what teenagers and children are actually experiencing.

Topline findings from the research include:

•Some 43 percent of parents believe it’s possible that their teenager could find marijuana easily. Yet 58 percent of teens say the drug is easy to come by.

•33 percent of parents said they believe their teenagers view marijuana as harmful. Yet only 18 percent of teens -- fewer than one in five -- view trying pot as risky.

•45 percent of parents believe their son or daughter may have friends who smoke pot. Yet 71 percent of teens say they have friends who use the drug.

•Just 21 percent of parents acknowledged the possibility that their teen might have tried marijuana, significantly lower than the 44 percent of teens who say they’ve done so.

•38 percent of parents said their teenagers might have been offered drugs, when, in fact, 59 percent of teenagers reported being offered an illicit substance.

•Six out of 10 teens (59 percent) were offered drugs in 1997, up significantly from 1995 (52 percent) and 1993 (46 percent). One third of all teens (33 percent) were offered drugs at school in 1997, up from 32 percent in 1996 and 23 percent in 1993.

•Almost three out of every 10 children (9- to 12-year olds, children in the 4th through 6th grades) were offered drugs in 1997 – an increase of 47 percent since 1993 (28 percent were offered drugs in 1997; 24 percent in 1996; 19 percent in 1993).

•The number of 4th through 6th graders (9- to 12-year-olds) experimenting with marijuana increased from 334,000 in 1993 to 571,000 in 1997. (Ed. note: The margin of error for the children’s data was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. This means that marijuana use among this group may actually have dropped! But how do you go about asking kids about their illegal experiences? This could actually have the effect of encouraging "drug" use.)

•Teen drug use: Marijuana use leveled off among younger teens at high levels. Older teens showed an increase in marijuana use. Use of cocaine, crack, methamphetamine remained unchanged.
Tables

  "Even though we’ve seen significant increases in adolescent drug use, parents surprisingly still underestimate the reality of drugs," Bonnette said. "This is a very complicated, very personal perceptual problem for parents. Teens see drugs all around them, and many deal with the pressure to experiment with little help from home. It’s not that parents don’t care – they do. But few parents believe their children are at risk, nor do they know when drugs are likely to become a part of their children’s lives."

   Drug use is significantly lower among children who learn about the risks of drugs at home, according to the Partnership’s study, yet only 28 percent of teens -- just over one in four -- say they’ve learned a great deal about the dangers of drugs from their parents.

   "Research tells us that parents can prevent a variety of risky behavior among their kids, including drug use," Bonnette said. "But taking action to protect your children first requires recognizing -- and then believing -- the possibility that your own kids are susceptible. It’s easy to recognize the drug problem from a distance. But seeing it as a real threat to your own children is too close to home for some people."

   An analysis of public opinion polls, published in the March 18th issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, echoes PDFA’s findings. Some 82 percent of Americans believe drugs are a serious problem nationally, but only 21 percent believe the problem is serious locally. Some 43 percent of parents believe children using drugs is a serious national crisis, yet only 8 percent believe it is a crisis in their local schools, and 6 percent, in their local communities.

   While 94 percent of parents interviewed for PDFA’s study said they talked with their teens about drugs over the last year, only 67 percent of teens recalled those discussions. Some 54 percent of parents talked with their teenagers about drugs at least four times, yet less than a quarter (24 percent) of these teens recalled those discussions.

New Media Campaign

   A new, national advertising campaign -- being coordinated by the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), in cooperation with the Partnership -- will target parents with powerful messages about drugs. The federal government is providing $195 million to purchase media exposure for the campaign -- a first -- and PDFA is providing all advertising to the effort pro bono. Up to 40 percent of the ads in the campaign will target parents.

The new campaign is underway in 12 U.S. cities and will go national in July. "We’re extremely grateful to the members of Congress who approved this campaign, and for General McCaffrey’s leadership," said James E. Burke, chairman of PDFA, referring to the director of ONDCP. "This effort will reach parents with powerful messages and encourage them to act now to protect their kids."

For further information (PRESS ONLY):

Steve Dnistrian   (212)973-3504

Leigh Leventhal  (212)973-3505

PDFA Pager        (800) 800-7759

(Ask operator for "Partnership for a Drug-Free America."

The Partnership Attitude Tracking Study monitors drug-related behavior and attitudes among children, teens and parents. It is the largest, on-going research on drug-related attitudes in the US, and the only on-going drug survey that collects data on children as young as eight and nine. This is the 10th installment of PATS conducted since 1987. For this installment, 1,922 children, 6,975 teenagers and 815 parents completed self-administered, anonymous questionnaires in 1997; data was analyzed in late 1997 and early 1998; findings were released April 13, 1998.

The Partnership for a Drug-Free America is a private, non-profit coalition of professionals from the communications industry. Best known for its national, anti-drug advertising campaign, the Partnership’s mission is to reduce demand for illicit drugs in America through media communication. To date, more than $2.8 billion in media exposure and some 500 ads have been donated to the Partnership's national campaign, making this the single, largest, public service ad campaign in history. PDFA receives major funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and financial support from more than 200 private sector corporations. PDFA accepts no money from manufacturers of alcohol and/or tobacco products
(Ed. note: This is a recent development. For years the PDFA took money from these industries. Of course, it continues to take money from the pharmaceutical industry.)


Key findings: 9- to 12-year-olds

The Partnership Attitude Tracking Study found that 4th-, 5th- and 6th-graders continue to be exposed to drug use, have weaker anti-drug attitudes and are more tolerant of drug use.

They were less likely in 1997 than in the past to tell their parents if they were offered drugs. However, upsetting their parents continued to be the number one reason not to use drugs and they wanted their moms and dads to talk to them more about the dangers of drugs.
Majority of 9- to 12-year-olds believe that there are dangers in using drugs. However, their anti-drug attitudes have weakened significantly from 1993. Children were significantly less likely in 1997 than they were in 1993 to agree with the statement "I am scared of taking drugs" (73 percent in 1993, 72 percent in 1996, 68 percent in 1997) and with the statement "Using drugs is dangerous" (90 percent in 1993, 87 percent in 1996, 84 percent in 1997).
"My parents would feel really bad if they found out I was using drugs" is the number one risk children associate with using drugs. Nine in ten kids (90 percent) "agree a lot" with this statement.
Almost three out of 10 children were offered drugs in 1997. Children in 1997 were significantly more likely than in the past to report that someone had tried to get them to take drugs. (19 percent in 1993, 24 percent in 1996, 28 percent in 1997, an increase of 47 percent).
Children in 1997 were less likely to tell their parents if someone offered them drugs: 54 percent in 1993, 55 percent in 1996, 49 percent in 1997. (Ed. note: The margin of error for the children’s data was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. This means that this number may actually be unchanged.)
Children in 1997 were more tolerant of drugs in 1997 than in previous years. In 1997, one-third of children felt that "everyone tries drugs sometimes" – a significant increase from 1996 (29 percent) and 1993 (28 percent). In 1997, 16 percent agreed that "smoking marijuana is ok sometimes," significantly more than 12 percent in 1993.
Children’s exposure to marijuana doubled from 1993 to 1997. In 1993, seven percent of children said that they had close friends who "use marijuana sometimes." In 1997, that number doubled to 14 percent. 
Children in 1997 were more likely to want to experiment with marijuana. Although low, trial of marijuana increased significantly from 1993 to 1997 from 3 to five percent (334,000 to 571,000 children). In 1997, 14 percent agreed that they would "like to try pot just once to see what is like." In 1993, the agreement was significantly lower at nine percent. (Ed. note: Again, the margin of error for the children’s data was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.)
Children and other drugs.
(Ed. note: The emphasis is always on marijuana, but children's perception of relative dangers are blurred.)

Seven out of 10 children (73 percent) were aware of inhalants and four out of 10 (40 percent) had heard of methamphetamine. This compares to 91 percent of children who were aware of marijuana.

Most children did not see any benefit in abusing inhalants. In 1993, eight percent agreed that "things you sniff or huff to get high are fun to use." There was no significant change in 1997, with 10 percent agreeing with the statement.

The perception of risk in inhalant abuse returned to its 1993 level. 58 percent of children in 1993 considered inhalants to be very dangerous, as compared with 62 percent in 1996 and 58 percent in 1997.

The perception of risk of methamphetamine remained stable from 1996 (34 percent saying very dangerous) to 1997 (36 percent saying very dangerous).

Between 1996 and 1997, there was virtually no change in the number of children who said that they had close friends who abused inhalants. Use of methamphetamine remained the same (five percent in 1996 and six percent in 1997).

There was no change in trial of inhalants or methamphetamine from 1996 to 1997 with seven percent of children abusing inhalants in 1997 and two percent trying methamphetamine.

Children want their parents to talk to them about how bad drugs are for them.

"Do you wish your parents would talk to you more about how bad drugs are for you?"

66 percent of 4th-graders said yes, 50 percent of 5th-graders agreed, 40 percent of 6th-graders said yes.

Key findings: Teens

The Partnership Attitude Tracking Study shows that in 1997 teens were more aware of the prevalence of marijuana use. Similar to the findings from Monitoring the Future, the erosion in key anti-marijuana attitudes among young teens leveled off in 1997. Compared to 1996, marijuana use among younger teens also leveled off. Among teens, perception of risk in inhalant abuse, heroin use, and trial of methamphetamine increased significantly.
Teens attitudes relating to prevalence and social acceptability of marijuana significantly increased in 1997.

Teens were significantly more likely in 1997 than in 1996 to agree strongly that "It seems like marijuana is everywhere these days," (56 percent in 1996, 59 percent in 1997); "Most people will try marijuana sometimes," (32 percent in 1993, 39 percent in 1996, 41 percent in 1997); and "Smoking marijuana is ok sometimes" (11 percent in 1993, 16 percent in 1996, 18 percent in 1997).

From 1996 to 1997, perception of great risk of marijuana trial and regular use of marijuana remained stable among 7th- and 8th-graders, but significantly decreased among 11th- and 12th-graders.

Great risk in trying marijuana once or twice

1993 1995 1996 1997

7th-/8th-graders

24%

20%

21%

22%

9th-/10th-graders

19

17

19

18

11th-/12th-graders

18

17

16

13+

+ Significantly different than 1996

 

Great risk in using marijuana regularly

1993 1995 1996 1997

7th-/8th-graders

70%

60%

67%

66%

9th-/10th-graders

63

59

61

58+

11th-/12th-graders

61

55

59

51+

+ Significantly different than 1996
There was no significant increase in marijuana use among younger teens (teens in grades 7 through 10) from 1996 to 1997.

Past Year

1993 1995 1996 1997

7th-/8th-graders

15%

20%

23%

22%

9th-/10th-graders

26

35

39

41

11th-/12th-graders

29

43

41

48+

+ Significantly different than 1996

 

Past month

1993 1995 1996 1997

7th-/8th-graders

10%

13%

15%

15%

9th-/10th-graders

17

21

27

26

11th-/12th-graders

17

29

26

31+

+ Significantly different than 1996
Two-thirds (65 percent) of teens consider "upsetting their parents" a risk of marijuana use.

Almost seven out of 10 (68 percent) 7th- and 8th-graders felt that there is a great risk in upsetting your parents, 63 percent of 9th- and 10th-graders considered this to be a great risk and 64 percent of 11th- and 12th-graders agreed with this.

Teens and other drugs.

Six out of 10 (59 percent) teens reported being offered drugs in 1997. This was a significant increase from 1993 (46 percent) and 1996 (54 percent). A third (33 percent) were offered drugs at school (23 percent in 1993, 32 percent in 1996).

Awareness of the risks of cocaine and crack use have remained high, with little or no change over the past -- great risk in trying (50 percent in 1993, 48 percent in 1996, 50 percent in 1997); great risk in regular use (83 percent in 1993, 84 percent in 1996, 84 percent in 1997). Use of cocaine/crack by teens has not changed significantly since last year (8 percent used in past year).

Awareness of the risk of trying methamphetamine once or twice has risen in the past year (41 percent in 1996, 44 percent in 1997). Awareness of the risk of regular use of methamphetamine remained high (77 percent in 1996, 79 percent in 1997). Past year use of methamphetamine remained at 9 percent.

Awareness of the risk of inhalant abuse significantly increased from 1996 to 1997. Percent who agreed strongly that "sniffing or huffing things to get high can kill you" significantly increased from 67 percent to 69 percent. Overall, trial and past year inhalant use remained stable (lifetime, 23 percent in 1995, 22 percent in 1996, 23 percent in 1997; past year, 16 percent in 1995, 14 percent in 1996, 15 percent in 1997; past month remained at 8 percent for all three years).

The perception of heroin as a dangerously addictive drug significantly increased from 79 percent in 1996 to 83 percent in 1997.

Compared to 1993, school and the media declined as sources of information about drugs. School (50 percent in 1993, 44 percent in 1996, 43 percent in 1997). TV shows, news, or movies (39 percent in 1993, 28 percent in 1996, 27 percent in 1997). Less than one third of teens named parents as a source of information on drugs. Parents (28 percent in 1993, 26 percent in 1996, 28 percent in 1997).
Only a quarter of teens (24 percent) report that their parents had talked to them about drugs four or more times in the past year. Three out of ten (31 percent) said that in the past year their parents had never talked to them about drugs.

Key findings: Parents

The Partnership Attitude Tracking Study demonstrates that today’s parents underestimate the vulnerability of their children to illegal drug use.
While virtually all parents of teens (94 percent) said that they talked to their teens about drugs in the past year, only two-thirds (67 percent) of teens say that their parents have talked to them.

Half of parents (54 percent) reported that they had these discussions four or more times in the past year, while only a quarter (24 percent) of teens said they had discussions this frequently.

Parents of teenagers overestimated the extent of their children’s awareness of the risk of trying marijuana.

A third of parents (33 percent) felt that their child thinks there is a great risk in trying marijuana; however, only 18 percent of teens thought there was a great risk in trying the drug.

Parents of teens were likely to underestimate the availability of marijuana to their children.

Four out of 10 parents (43 percent) said that marijuana is very easy for their teen to get; while, almost six out 10 (58 percent) teens felt that it was very easy for them to get marijuana.

Parents underestimated their child’s exposure to illegal drugs.
38 percent of parents said that their teenagers had been offered drugs, when, in reality, almost six out of 10 (59 percent) reported being offered an illegal drug.
45 percent of parents thought that their teen has friends who smoke marijuana, while seven out of 10 teens (71 percent) said they had a friend who uses it.
Parents of teens seriously underestimated their teenager’s trial of marijuana: 21 percent of parents acknowledged the possibility their teen may have tried marijuana, significantly lower than the 44 percent of teens who said they had tried the drug.

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