November 14, 1999
From The Houston Chronicle
viewpoints@chron.com
http://www.chron.com/
http://www.chron.com/content/hcitalk/index.html
By Eric Lichtblau and Esther Schrader, Los Angeles Times
(Marijuananews note: This article orginally appeared in the LA Times, but has been carried in a number of other papers.)
FLAWED ESTIMATES STIR DOUBT IN WAR ON DRUGS

U.S. Says Cocaine Trafficking Figures Too Low

WASHINGTON -- Government authorities say they have seriously underestimated the flow of cocaine from Colombia and other drug-producing nations, a realization that casts doubt on years of basic assumptions behind the war on drugs.
(Marijuananews note: The Czar and his apologists have been claiming that the drop in cocaine use was proof of their "success." These numbers completely undermine these claims.)
See
UK Guardian Weekly Pans The Czar:
"People should certainly listen to what he has to say.
But perhaps it would be advisable not to inhale too deeply."
Drug-intelligence officials are particularly alarmed over their discovery of a new high-yield variety of coca being grown and processed in Colombia, the No. 1 supplier of cocaine to the United States.

That, together with an acknowledgment that their methods for measuring narcotics production may be seriously flawed, means that government estimates of global drug trafficking are likely to "skyrocket" early next year, said officials in the drug-intelligence community.

Estimates of cocaine production in Colombia alone could triple, sources said. "It's going to be big," said a law-enforcement official, who asked not to be identified.

The revised estimates, combined with a soon-to-be-released plan for countering lax coordination among drug-intelligence agencies, are likely to alter U.S. tactics in the $17.8 billion drug war for years, sources said.

Key policy-makers said estimates of worldwide drug production, while imprecise, are critical in allocating drug-interdiction resources, plotting strategy and influencing diplomatic relations with drug-producing nations.

"The policy-maker ought to have correct estimates of how (drugs are flowing), patterns, where, when, so that you're not buying a bunch of Coast Guard cutters to go to the Eastern Caribbean if most of your smuggling is on maritime craft in the Eastern Pacific," said Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, the White House drug czar.

Yet the new numbers jeopardize McCaffrey's ambitious goals for cutting narcotics supplies 25 percent by 2002 and 50 percent by 2007.
See
From The Drug Czar’s 8-Year Plan to the Republican’s Drug-Free Century Act,
The Prohibitionist Agenda Is War Without End. Orwell Would Understand.
Analysis By Richard Cowan

Critics of U.S. policy have demanded an end to the war on drugs. News of higher cocaine and heroin production, as well as an explosion in border confiscations of the designer drug Ecstasy, could bolster arguments that anti-drug strategies have failed.
(Marijuananews note: The recognition of the anti-prohibitionist position in this context is very significant.)
Authorities have been working to devise a better way to track the global flow of drugs, combining satellite photos of crop fields with more precise analyses of how poppy, coca and other crops are processed into drugs for sale.

Embarrassing shortcomings in the system became apparent last month after U.S. and Colombian authorities broke up a Latin American cocaine ring. The volume of cocaine that they now think the "Juvenal" network was bringing into the United States -- up to 30 metric tons a month -- rivaled earlier estimates of all cartel imports combined, officials said.
(Marijuananews note: In other words, DEAland cocaine consumption is perhaps 3 times as high as they have been claiming!)
"There was just amazement that one organization would have the ability to distribute that much cocaine a month," an official said. "The whole Juvenal thing really just illustrates why we have to get our act together in terms of reconciling these numbers."

Even before final estimates are made next year, officials have said they have been trying to assess what they mean.

Some officials said Latin American traffickers are sending more cocaine to Europe than ever, and others said growers are stockpiling large supplies of the drug. Still others suggest that Americans are consuming more cocaine than earlier feared.

Observers, such as Mark A.R. Kleiman, director of the Drug Policy Analysis Program at the University of California, Los Angeles, have said the estimates are little more than guesswork used to get Congress to authorize more funds.

They also point to extensive surveys, emergency room admissions and other data showing a decline in drug use in the United States.

"More cocaine in the U.S.? Hard to believe," Kleiman said. "Where are all the corpses?"

The scramble to get a better handle on worldwide drug flow comes at a critical time in U.S. relations with Colombia.

Anti-government rebels, who control much of the narcotics trade, have gained strength in recent months, and Clinton administration officials have argued that only a new infusion of cash to the Colombian government – as much as $1.5 billion -- can stop them.

So far, the administration has been timid about pushing the proposal on Capitol Hill, preoccupied with negotiations on other high-priority issues. However, some experts said the revised Colombian cocaine estimates could move the aid request to the forefront.

"Clearly, if you look at the new numbers, we have to change our way of doing business. We have to make a better argument for getting the Colombians more help," said an administration official, who asked not to be identified.

In Colombia, which produces 70 percent of the world's cocaine, a combination of factors has scuttled U.S. numbers that have shaped anti-drug policy.

Cocaine producers have developed an insidious variety of coca, but U.S. intelligence agents have limited access to a key drug-growing region, controlled by guerrillas. That has contributed to U.S. authorities' flawed understanding of the region's growth and processing methods.

For years, most coca grown in Colombia was of a variety -- ipadu – whose leaves yield relatively small amounts of cocaine, officials said. A higher-yield variety -- E. coca coca -- is grown in Peru and Bolivia and sent to Colombia for processing and export.

When satellite photos of Colombia taken late last year showed acres of new coca fields, U.S. officials assumed Colombians were growing the same low-yield coca plants they long have cultivated. Intelligence experts estimated that 165 metric tons of potential cocaine were produced in Colombia.

However, recent intelligence about Colombia's cocaine-producing regions revealed that the crops are a third, never-before-seen variety of coca, which yields higher amounts of cocaine and takes a year -- rather than three -- to cultivate.

Copyright: 1999 Houston Chronicle